Asia is poised to dominate global conventional refinery capacity additions, accounting for over 35% of the total capacity additions by 2030. This growth is underpinned by substantial investments and large-scale projects, particularly in India, China, and Pakistan, underscoring these countries’ strategic priorities around energy security and meeting rising domestic demand. These three countries are expected to be key contributors in terms of the capacity additions during the 2025 to 2030 outlook period.
China is set to dominate conventional refinery capacity additions in Asia, accounting for over a quarter of the region’s capacity additions by 2030. This can be attributed to several factors, including strong domestic demand and a strategic focus on energy security and export potential. Notably, new-build projects are set to account for nearly 80% of China’s total capacity additions by 2030. Among these, Caofeidian V is a major refinery project with substantial capacity additions during the outlook period. Hebei Xinhua Petrochemical is the operator and equity owner of this new-build project. Currently in the approval stage, Caofeidian V is expected to commence operations in 2029 with a planned capacity of 401,000 barrels per day (bpd). Other significant new-build projects such as Gulei and Lianyungang II further underscore China’s commitment to expanding its refining capacity during the outlook period. India is expected to closely follow China in terms of refinery capacity additions, with nearly 2.3 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) of capacity expected to be added by 2030. Expansion-type refinery projects dominate within the country, accounting for nearly 70% of the country’s capacity additions by 2030. Vadinar CDU Expansion is a major refinery project with substantial capacity additions during the outlook period. Nayara Energy is the operator of this expansion project set to begin operations next year. Ramayapatnam (new-build project), Panipat CDU Expansion, and Paradip CDU Expansion are some other major projects with significant capacity additions during the outlook period.
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Conventional refinery capacity additions in Asia by type, 2025-2030
Pakistan stands third in terms of refinery capacity additions, with nearly 1.5 mmbd of capacity expected to be added by 2030. New-build projects account for almost the entire capacity additions in the country. Among these, Larkana is a major project expected to add a capacity of 400 mbd by 2030. This refinery, owned and operated by Pakistan State Oil, is expected to commence operations in 2026. Further analysis on global conventional refinery projects can be found in GlobalData’s new report, Conventional Refinery New Build and Expansion Projects Analysis by Type, Development Stage, Key Countries, Region and Forecasts to 2030.
